Australia's new subs may come in a a Japanese flavor

[MikeJames]

The chances of the RAN operating improved-Soryu class subs just went up significantly.

Defence pact to lead way for joint submarine venture

Brendan Nicholson
Defence Editor
Canberra

THE AUSTRALIAN JULY 07, 2014 12:00AM

A HISTORIC deal for unprecedented defence co-operation between Australia and Japan to be signed this week by prime ministers Shinzo Abe and Tony Abbott creates the possibility of the two nations jointly building a fleet of hi-tech submarines.

The co-ordinated push for closer defence ties by the two leaders has dramatically increased the likely levels of co-operation on what will be Australia’s biggest ever defence project.

Mr Abe flies to Australia today for a visit that will seal a much closer economic and defence relationship between the two nations.

The pact could also see a significant increase in joint training between Australian and Japanese forces, much of it on Australian soil.

China is watching the Abe visit closely and with some concern. The leaders will sign both an Economic Partnership Agreement and an agreement on closer defence co-operation that will include work on submarine technology.

The Australian understands that could quickly evolve into an agreement to set up a joint corporation to carry the submarine project, with some construction likely to be done in each country.

The plan to build up to 12 submarines is set to be the biggest defence project Australia has ever confronted and the vessels are considered crucial to the future security and prosperity of a major trading nation.

The Japanese Prime Minister will address a joint sitting of parliament tomorrow and has received a rare invitation to attend a meeting of the National Security Committee of Mr Abbott’s cabinet.

The Australian has been told that the US has encouraged Australia to work closely with Japan, whose Soryu-class submarine is said to be the world’s best diesel-electric boat.

Mr Abbott yesterday stressed the economic benefits of Mr Abe’s visit, noting that the Economic Partnership Agreement would give the farming sector better access to Japan for Australia’s beef, cheese, horticulture and wine. And consumers would benefit from less expensive household appliances and electronics.

“Australia is a trading nation,” the Prime Minister said, “and more trade means more jobs.”

Japan is Australia’s second-biggest trading partner — with almost $70 billion in two-way trade every year.

While there has been speculation for some time that Australia might seek Japan’s help with aspects of its plan to design and build the fleet, negotiations have been kept largely under wraps and the prospect of major co-operation seemed remote.

The Australian has been told that has changed dramatically because of the two leaders' personal determination to strengthen security ties and the defence relationship is advancing much more quickly than anyone anticipated even weeks ago.

Concern has been growing rapidly in Japan about tensions with China in several potential flashpoints including the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by both nations. China calls the ­islands the Diaoyus.

And the joint Japanese-US air-defence command said in a recent briefing that there had been more than 800 incursions into Japanese airspace in the past 12 months, some accidental but most involving Chinese military aircraft.

That has added to longstanding concerns about the possibility of North Korea developing an accurate ballistic missile able to carry a nuclear warhead.

A top priority for Mr Abe has been to persuade his nation’s parliament to change the interpretation of its pacifist constitution to allow the principle of “collective self-defence”. That will allow Japan to help its allies in a crisis and, presumably, its allies would be more likely to assist Japan.

This change in a domestic policy that is very specific to post-war Japan has had an unforeseen but immediate impact on Australia’s submarine plans.

Andrew Davies, of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank, said the growing concerns in Japan had opened up the possibility of Australia making a major change in direction and sharing technology or buying complete submarines from Japan.

That seemed to be a remote possibility until very recently, Dr Davies said, but having both prime ministers driving the idea could well make it happen.

The Soryu-class submarine has long been considered off-­limits to Australia because of Japan’s pacifist constitution.

Dr Davies said China saw this as part of a wider plan to change the balance of power in the region.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop told The Australian during a ­recent visit to Japan that the Abe government had indicated it would be willing to give Australia considerable help with the ­massive job of designing and building its new submarines — and would consider selling complete submarines.

The governments are now looking at the submarine project in a whole new way.

Ms Bishop told The Australian it was clear Japan wanted to raise co-operation with Australia on defence and security to a new level.

“The language being used is unprecedented in terms of speaking of the special relationship, the depth and breadth of the friendship and their preparedness to share sensitive information with us,” she said.

Ms Bishop said that while ­Australia was looking at ­submarine options from a number of countries, it became apparent during recent talks between Defence Minister David ­Johnston and his Japanese counterpart, Itsunori Onodera, that Japan was quite prepared to provide detailed information to Australia.

[MikeJames]

This is moving way faster than anyone imagined. Navy is reeling from a string of 'please explain' questions from the Minister's office asking questions they hoped no one asked. Especially related to the assumptions around actual cost of maintaining Collins through to the revised decommissioning date.

Submarine Replacement May Be Fast Tracked
AFR

The acquisition of the replacement submarine fleet might be fast tracked given mounting concern within the Abbott government over how long the troubled and ageing Collins class submarines can be kept in service.

The country was at risk of falling behind in an Asian arms build-up as countries including India, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam modernise their submarine fleets amid rising tension over China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and East China Sea.

Sources close to the project suggest bringing the acquisition forward strengthened the case for purchasing a proven existing submarine rather than going with the costly and higher risk options bequeathed by Labor to the Abbott government, which were an evolved Collins and an Australian design and build. They also point out that with an expansive naval shipbuilding program in the offing Australian industry would lack the capacity to also undertake an ambitious submarine project.

Defence Minister David Johnston is concerned about continuing maintenance problems and the mounting cost of keeping the Collins fleet in the water.

“Since the Labor Party gave us the Collins class submarine on the basis that it would be cheap to maintain and very reliable, we have done nothing more than spend $1 billion a year for one or two submarines being *available,” he said.

Though defence carried out a study last year that suggested the fleet could be kept going for an additional seven years, serious fires aboard two *submarines this year have cast fresh doubts over their longevity.

Replacement could take decades

Defence sources warn it would likely be at least 10 years before a *new *Australian submarine would be in the water even if one of the proven submarines was ordered, while more complex options meant delay to the 2030s.

In February there was a serious fire aboard HMAS Waller while it was patrolling on the surface off the West Australian coast though there were no casualties and four crew who fought the blaze were landed for observation. Worryingly the submarine had just completed scheduled maintenance and was at sea as part of her return to operations. There was also a serious battery fire aboard HMAS Sheean.

The submarines were supposed to have a service life of 28 years and be retired between 2031 and 2038 with the seven-year extension. But a Defence Materiel Organisation report completed in 2013 lists *numerous problems with periscopes, generators, sonars and cooling *systems which need to be managed if the fleet was to reach its intended *service life.

Former submariner and defence analyst Rex Patrick told The Australian Financial Review “time is simply *running out for Australia to get new subs in the water if we are to avoid a capability gap”.

“We’ve seen a considerable amount of money being thrown at an ageing, orphaned and expensive Collins class submarine,” Mr Patrick said.

“The maintenance of Collins will only get harder and more costly over time. If the minister is seeking to expedite the future submarine project along feasible, cost effective lines, this is a refreshing move and one that should be supported by the public, even the South Australians, who will see work in their shipyards much sooner,” he said.

No Australian design likely

Senator Johnston told Parliament the costly Australian design and build option was already off the table if the Navy was to avoid being without *a submarine. Senator Johnston said Australia *simply did not have enough design engineers to tackle the design and build option.

“There are really only three places we can go for the design of a new *submarine: the French, the Germans and the Japanese and we are engaging all of those,” Senator Johnston said.

German-based TKMS has offered its Type 214 and stretched Type 216 for the Australian project, French-based DCNS has offered its Scorpene but has also offered a larger design. A key Australian Strategic Policy Institute report released in 2009 *estimated the cost of the project would range from $9 billion for 12 proven European submarines currently in service to $36 billion for a high-risk *Australian design and build.

Australia is looking to build a *submarine of about 4000 tonnes. The Collins weighs 3000 tonnes. It would have greater range and endurance to patrol sea lanes and conduct eavesdropping missions in north Asia.

The options

The French Scorpene costs about $1.1 billion, the TKMS Type 214 about $600 million and the Soryu about $US550 million ($589 million) *according to Senator Johnston. But Defence sources suggest a strong push by Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has seen the 4000 tonne diesel powered Japanese Soryu class *submarine – a boat considered closest to Australia’s requirements emerge as favourite.

Options range from the Japanese building the submarine in Japan to a joint venture with Adelaide based ASC or a major *international player such as BAE Systems should it take over the management of the government owned submarine builder. A Japanese submarine technical team from Kawasaki/Mitsubishi visited Adelaide based ASC late last week. A decision on paring back options is still expected to be made with the *government’s new defence white paper next year.

Mr Abbott has been under fire for reneging on the government’s election promise to purchase 12 submarines and build them in Adelaide. In a speech to Liberal Party function in Adelaide last week, Mr Abbott would only say whatever work was carried out on the project in Australia would be *carried out in Adelaide.

ENDS

[MikeJames]

Further to the above

Australia leans toward buying Japan subs to upgrade fleet -sources

Mon Sep 1, 2014 5:09am EDT

By Tim Kelly and Nobuhiro Kubo

TOKYO, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Japan and Australia are leaning towards a multibillion-dollar sale by Tokyo of a fleet of stealth submarines to Canberra's military in a move that could rile an increasingly assertive China, people familiar with the talks said.

An agreement is still some months away, three people said, but the unprecedented sale of off-the-shelf vessels based on the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force's Soryu class sub is emerging as the likeliest option. Such a deal would signal a major expansion of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's controversial drive for a more active military after decades of pacifism. Rival China regularly accuses Abe of reviving Japan's wartime militarism.

Australia is eager to get the quiet-running diesel-engine subs from Japan, despite the political backlash that would follow from abandoning a government pledge to build the vessels at home, said a person with knowledge of Canberra's thinking.

"It is the best option out there," said the source.

Abe and his Australian counterpart Tony Abbott agreed in July to "enhance our security and defence cooperation", including the transfer of military equipment and technology. Discussions have since moved rapidly from engine-technology transfer to a full build in Japan, with the goal of replacing by the 2030s Australia's six outdated Collins-class boats with 12 scaled-down versions of the 4,000-ton Soryu, the world's biggest non-nuclear subs.

"Discussions between Japan and Australia are gathering pace," one source said.

For Abe a deal, which could come as soon as January, would send a strong signal that Japan will be less constrained by its pacifist Constitution. He has already this year loosened curbs on arms exports, ended a ban on defending friendly nations and reversed a decade of military-spending cuts. Selling a fleet of subs would mark the first time since at least the end of World War Two that Japan had sold a complete weapons platform overseas.

SHIFTING DEBATE

Bulk orders for Japanese arms makers would help bring down weapons-procurement costs for Tokyo, which has the biggest debt burden in the industrial world. For Canberra, the sale would avoid the costs and risks of developing a homegrown champion from scratch, after the locally made Collins-class subs were panned for being noisy and easily detected. A state-owned shipyard in the South Australian capital of Adelaide would handle maintenance and overhaul, which can cost as much as the purchase price over the life of the fleet.

Options under discussion run from working jointly to develop the technology, to Australia importing the engines and building the rest, to building the fleet in South Australia under licence from Japan, to - most controversially - Canberra buying finished subs designed and built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd and Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd, the sources said. A visit last week by representatives of the two Japanese companies to the Adelaide shipyards of government-owned ASC Pty Ltd - formerly Australian Submarine Corp - sparked fierce media speculation in Australia. A spokeswoman for ASC referred all questions to Australia's defence ministry.

"No decisions have yet made on the design and build of the next generation of Australian submarines," a spokeswoman for Defence Minister David Johnston said. "It is entirely proper and prudent for the government to consider these strategic decisions through the Defence White Paper process."

Spokesmen for Mitsubishi Heavy and Kawasaki Heavy said they were not in a position to comment on the government-led talks.

Japanese Defence Ministry spokesman Hirofumi Takeda declined comment, saying only that "Japan and Australia are conducting various exchanges of opinion, including on equipment and technology transfer, as we move toward strengthening bilateral defence cooperation".

Australia acknowledged in July for the first time it might allow the subs to be built overseas.

DOMESTIC BLOWBACK

Cost is an issue for Canberra. Defence Minister Johnston told Reuters in June that he was "very disturbed" by the A$40 billion estimate for the homegrown option. Twelve top-of-the-line Soryu subs at $500 million each, plus maintenance and overhaul, would work out cheaper for Australia as it grapples with austerity.

Abbott's government is to make a final decision on the type and number of submarines it wants in a broad defence review expected early next year. But already there is strong opposition in Australia to building the subs overseas. South Australia's defence and trade minister, Martin Hamilton-Smith, said there was alarm within the state administration that the federal government was about to do a "backflip" and reverse its policy. He warned that any decision to build the submarine overseas would have a broader impact on the economy than the recent decisions by Ford Motor Co, Toyota Motor Corp and General Motors Co to cease manufacturing in Australia. South Australia is home to 27,000 defence jobs, 3,000 of them in shipbuilding, and Hamilton-Smith said the submarine project would generate industry activity worth A$250 billion over 30 years.

"I think a number of state governments, a large segment of the defence industry and the shipbuilding and defence workforce would be shattered, absolutely shattered and devastated by such an announcement," he told Reuters.

The United States, which has strong military ties with both Japan and Australia, would welcome the improvement to Canberra's naval capabilities, which could help Washington monitor China's underwater activity as its own fleet shrinks.

"The Japanese have got the (technological) lead right now," said Admiral Stuart Munsch, the chief U.S. undersea naval officer in Asia.

Cooperation on subs "is a national decision for them to make with each other, but we would certainly be welcoming of that partnership," Munsch told reporters aboard a U.S. submarine during a visit to the Yokosuka naval base near Tokyo last month.

[rritchie71]

If those figures are correct then we should buy from Japan, you cannot in any rational sense justify spending an extra 25Billion in Australia to build the same product you can get from someone else who can actually do it better than you can anyway.
Now in noting that SA will miss out, then if they were also smart, taking some of that money saved and putting into economically sustainable industries there to lessen the impact would not only be smart, it would also be the right thing to do. So let’s see what happens.

Cheers

Robert

[MikeJames]

Looks like the Daily Terrorgraph has finally woken up to the story.

New Japanese submarines to cost Abbott Government $20 billion
2 HOURS AGO SEPTEMBER 08, 2014 5:52AM

SEVENTY-TWO years after Japanese submarines attacked Sydney Harbour, the next generation of Australian submariners will be put to sea in boats made in Japan.

In one of the biggest and most contentious defence equipment decisions in decades, the Abbott Government will select the Japanese-built Soryu Class submarine to replace locally built Collins Class boats as the navy’s key strike weapon beyond 2030.

A decision to spend more than $20 billion on up to 10 of the Japanese vessels will be announced before the end of the year.

That is six months ahead of the release date for the Abbott Government’s first Defence White Paper.

The decision is being fast-tracked due to growing concerns about the massive cost of maintaining the Collins boats beyond their use-by-date of 2026. Some estimates put that cost at more than $2 billion.

“The Government cannot afford a submarine capability gap and every day past 2026/27 when Collins class is due to begin decommissioning, adds days of risk,’’ a senior defence source said.

The 4200-tonne Soryu Class boat carries a crew of 65 and is powered by an air-independent propulsion system that allows it to remain submerged for much longer periods than other conventionally powered submarines. Range has been a major factor against the design — the Soryu has a range of about 11,000 km at 12 km/hr compared with 22,000 km at 19 km/hr for the Collins Class - but it is understood that one option under consideration is to provide submarine basing facilities in Northern Australia (Darwin) to cut the transit distances to the boats’ patrol areas by thousands of kms.

The purchase price for the Japanese built boats would be about half the price of an Australian option.

German builder TKMS told a conference earlier this year that it could build 12 submarines for $20 billion. Both German and French submarines remain in the running, but senior sources told News Corp Australia that the Japanese option was clear favourite. The decision will anger government owned South Australian shipbuilder ASC and the SA Government and it finally breaks the government’s election promise to “build 12 submarines in Adelaide”.

“It is ludicrous to think we can design a submarine — nobody believes that,” one insider said.

Given that the Collins fleet will not reach its availability benchmark (the amount of time a vessel is available for service) until 2016 (20 years after entering service) the government does not want to risk a submarine capability gap. ASC will remain the centre of submarine sustainability and will play a key role in the future frigate project with work estimated at $1 billion a year flowing to South Australia by 2023.

However the yard’s woeful performance on the Air Warfare Destroyer (AWD) project ($600 million over budget and three years late) has left the government with little option but to look elsewhere for a new submarine.
“With a record like that is anyone seriously thinking we should proceed and build a fleet of future submarines in the same
shipyard?” a government source said.

News Corp can also reveal that when the Commonwealth signed up to the AWD contract, it was informed by Treasury that it would incur a premium of $1 billion. According to government auditors the premium for local production is about 30 per cent or $15 billion for a locally built submarine.

That is the entire cost of the Joint Strike Fighter project.

[MikeJames]

And the inevitable industry bleating now starts. Forget about the fact they can't design the subs, can't build them and couldn't deliver them on time and on budget if they tried...

Industry urges submarine certainty
AAP 44 MIN AGO
POLITICS INDUSTRIES MANUFACTURING
Manufacturers and unions want the federal government to end speculation over whether the navy's new submarines will be built in Adelaide or Japan.

The government appears to be back-tracking from its election promise to construct the vessels in South Australia.

There's also reports Japanese Soryu-class submarines constructed in Japan will replace the navy's six Collins submarines which retire in the 2030s.

Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said local supply chain companies had made investment decisions on expectations the submarines would be built in Adelaide and needed clarity.

"Companies have acted in good faith here and there's been a long held belief and signals from governments of both sides that submarines would be built in Australia," he told ABC Radio.

"Industry would be looking for guidance as soon as possible."

Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national president Paul Bastian said building the submarines in Japan would cause a ripple effect for industry.

"I think there will be thousands of jobs in the ship building sector that will be put at risk," he told ABC Radio.

A final decision will be announced in the upcoming Defence White Paper to be released by next June.

But the government may spell out its basic approach before the end of the year.

Industry Minister Ian Macfarlane maintains no decision has been made but has highlighted the government's desire to get the best value.

"We want to ensure defence has the best submarine available at the best possible price," Mr Macfarlane told ABC Radio.

"We want the best value."

Any decision would be based on defence advice.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will visit defence equipment manufacturer ASC in Adelaide on Tuesday.

Defence Minister David Johnston pledged before the election, at the same company, that the submarines would be built in Australia.

Mr Shorten said the Abbott government had lied to South Australians.

"It's another kick in the guts for South Australia, only months after the Abbott government goaded Holden and Toyota into sending thousands of local jobs overseas," he said in a statement.

Buying a new submarine fleet from Japan could put Australia's national security at risk, he warned.

"Submarine and ship building is a strategic asset that we can't let wither and die," he said in a statement, adding no one could predict every threat of future conflict.

Mr Shorten warned that could "irresponsibly put our national security at risk as a maritime nation".

[MichaelB]

Mr Shorten said the Abbott government had lied to South Australians.

"It's another kick in the guts for South Australia, only months after the Abbott government goaded Holden and Toyota into sending thousands of local jobs overseas," he said in a statement.

Buying a new submarine fleet from Japan could put Australia's national security at risk, he warned. "Submarine and ship building is a strategic asset that we can't let wither and die," he said in a statement

Not being a submarine type, how many of the very successful Oberons were built in Australia?

[rritchie71]

Zero, zilch, none, they were all built in Scotland, and if you compare them in the context of their times, they far out did the Collins class in every way, especially availability.

Robert

[MikeJames]

Defence ‘positive’ over Japan offer to help build subs offer
THE AUSTRALIAN JANUARY 07, 2015 9:40AM
Jared Owens
Reporter
Canberra

NEGOTIATIONS are continuing with Japan about acquiring the next-generation submarine fleet, the Defence Department says, following a reported offer from Tokyo to build the vessels with both Japanese and Australian labour.

The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reports Japan officials have proposed to help build the submarines instead of exporting a new fleet, following concerns in Australia over the impact on the local shipbuilding industry.

Under the proposal, Japan’s defence ministry would co-operate with Australia in developing special steel and other materials for its new submarines, while Tokyo will be in charge of assembling them, the report said.

The Australian negotiators reportedly took “a positive stance” to the proposal, adding the two countries may strike a deal by the end of 2015.

Asked about the report, the Department of Defence said in a statement: “Work is progressing to explore options for a conventionally powered Future Submarine, and Australia is discussing issues relating to submarines with a number of countries, including Japan.

“No decisions have yet been made on the design and build of the next generation of Australian submarines.

“The government’s decisions will be based on reliable data evaluated against the Navy’s requirements.”

The Coalition in opposition promised to build a new fleet of 12 submarines at the government-owned corporation ASC’s shipyard in South Australia if possible.

The Abbott government has since claimed the previous Labor government did not do enough groundwork on the project to enable its completion with a capability gap between the retiring Collins-class submarines and the new fleet.

Japan’s high-tech shipbuilding industry is thought to be well-placed to win the contract.

The Labor Party and industry groups protest that losing the contract could deal a potentially fatal blow to naval shipbuilding at home, with a knock-on effect for associated industries.

However, critics point out that Japan may be able to supply the fleet for as little as half of the cost of making it at home.

Defence Minister Kevin Andrews, who assumed the portfolio last month, was unavailable to comment.

Additional reporting: AFP