ADF White Paper promises new RAN surface fleet

[MikeJames]

As many of you may be aware the Defence White Paper has been released and it promises big things for the ADFs future.

Author's note. As I find things I will update this. Update 1 includes the ABM capability sought.

I''ll break it down into the service arms

DEFENCE

The ADF will be getting a satellite-based imagery system covering this part of the world. Though its not spelled out, the same constellation of satellites is likely to have an ELINT electronic intelligence collection capability, further leveraging the ADFs long term intention to be a dominant player in the electronic warfare space, you'll see what I mean in individual service entries. The capability may also include a space-based high-resolution synthetic-aperture radar.
The ADF is looking at acquiring an anti-ballistic missile defence capability, partially built around the SM-6 Interceptor missile and the Aegis system on the AWDs, but in the long term acquiring a land-based capability as well. Obviously the threat of Chinese ballistic missiles is being taken seriously, as is the likelihood they will be used.
The ADF will acquire a ground-based deployable surface to surface anti-ship missile system (Probably NSM) to either protect Australian territory (Cocos Island anyone) or to project power into the South China Sea from land nearby

AIR FORCE

The RAAF had already completed a significant program of replacing assets in the last decade, so there are fewer new toys for them here. When you consider that ten years ago the RAAF consisted of F/A18 Hornets, F111s, C130Hs Hercules, Caribous, Orions and 707 tankers, the fleet today is quite remarkably different. Super Hornets replacing the F111s, F35 Lightning 2s on order to replace the Hornets, eight new C17s in service, C130Js replacing the H models, Caribous replaced by C27J Spartans, the 707s replaced by vastly more capable KC-30 tankers, Orions to be replaced by Poseidons, plus new capabilities such as Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft.

The RAAF will further receive:

Seven additional P-8A Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft top add to the eight already on order to replace the AP-3C Orions. They will be continuously upgraded in-line with the US Navy's fleet of P-8As
Seven new Triton High Altitude Long Endurance drones, the maritime recon version of the Global Hawk drone
Five new Gulfstream G550-based electronic warfare birds, basically the capabilities of the USAFS secretive Rivet Joint birds in a smaller package that can do airborne intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and electronic warfare. All part of the EW capability I was talking about.
12 Super Hornet based Growler electronic warfare attack birds, once again according with the ADF desire to own the EW spectrum, helping to make up for our smaller numbers (only the USN operates Growlers). They will be kept updated in-line with the USN fleet.
Two additional Airbus A330-based tankers to join the five in service and the two on order to bring the total fleet to nine.
A project team will be established to begin the replacement for the current Hawk Lead In Fighter Trainers, probably leveraging off the current USAF project to replace the aging Talon trainers. These aircraft will have a limited point defence capability in addition to training. In service from 2022
The King Airs will be replaced with a new 'Training Support Aircraft'
The C130Js will be replaced by A400s in the early 2020s.

ARMY

The Army gets new Mechanised Infantry Combat Vehicles (MICV) to replace the aging M113 fleet
A new wheeled combat recon capability will replace the current ASLAV fleet
The Army will receive a new fleet of trucks and general purpose vehicles
The current Bushmaster protected mobility vehicles will be replaced in the early 2020s
The Hawkei light protected vehicle will be acquired in significant numbers.
The Army's combat engineering capability will be boosted by the acquisition of a range of armored engineering vehicles
The M1 Abrams fleet will be upgraded in train with the US Army's fleet of tanks
A new capability will be acquired, introducing a 300 KM range rocket artillery system into service (ATACMS most likely)
The current RBS-70 short range Surface to Air (SAM) system will be replaced
A new long range ground-based SAM system will be acquired (Patriot or MEADS)
Armed, medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned aircraft and a suite of tactical unmanned systems to provide improved tactical awareness of the battlefield and new strike options.
A new capability will be introduced, unmanned electronic intelligence and warfare drones, once again highlighting the ADFs emphasis on the EW capability
The Tiger attack helicopter (which has never operated properly despite being years late and massively over budget) will be replaced by a new helicopter incorporating marinised capabilities for operation of Canberra and Adelaide (Almost certainly the Cobra Zulu in service with the USMC)
The Army will stand up a Riverine Patrol Boat force, capable of patrol, recon and insertion of special forces (almost certainly the Swedish CB-90)
The soldier will receive new personal weapons, new mortars and 'bunker-buster' rockets, new night fighting gear, new body armor, new load carrying gear, new radios and new camouflage uniforms.
The Army's LCM-1E landing craft will be replaced.

The big thing Army did not receive was self-propelled artillery, it's a capability long identified but DMO stuffed around for the last 10 years and still didn't settle on anything. In a crunch we could go for a Foreign Military Sales purchase of Paladin SPG off the US if we needed the capability in a hurry.

SPECIAL FORCES

Lots of stuff we can't talk about but there are a few big-ticket items too large to hide in the black world budget.
The acquisition of a number of small, light C17-deployable helicopters for Special Operations missions, basically something similar to the US Special Operations Commands MH-6 Little Birds. C-17 lands, deploys the birds, the chicken stranglers climb aboard and the silenced birds drop them on top of the situation, providing a nasty and probably terminal surprise to the people unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end.
A long-range, high speed capability to undertake special forces insertion and recovery and combat search and rescue (CSAR). Almost written to support the V22 Osprey, tilt-rotor operations here we come.
As an aside I understand that V22 proving operations are planned sometime this year for either Canberra or Adelaide in conjunction with the US Marines. On the other hand we'll also probably be proving the F35 off one or other this year and we won't be acquiring the VSTOL version of that aircraft.

NAVY

Navy is a winner out of the White Paper.
The Navy will receive 12 new submarines, (almost certainly the Soryu class) all to be built in Australia on a rolling program that should see a new sub delivered every 18-20 months throughout the life of the project.
The new subs will be fitted with the US Navy's AN/BYG-1 combat system and Mark 48 MOD 7 heavyweight torpedo , and will be continuously upgraded in line with the US Navy
Nine new ASW frigates to replace the Anzacs (probably a German design as the Type 26 is being scaled back by the RN as too expensive and won't fit our time frame)
The Anzacs will be modernised and all upgraded with the CEAFAR system, which will be continuously upgraded throughout its service life to meet the evolving challenge
The Armidale class will be replaced by 12 70-80 metre OPVs, which will be capable of operating an organic manned or unmanned aerial capability.
The RAN will operate a new range of surveillance drones from all major warships
In addition to the two AORs currently being acquired to replace Success and Sirius Navy will acquire a third AOR in the mid 2020s
HMAS Choules will be updated with self-defence capability (probably Phalanx and Bushmaster) and will replaced in the mid-2020s with a new amphibious support ship
The Remora sub rescue capability will be replaced with a new and more capable system
The three Hobart class will be continuously upgraded with their AEGIS radar and combat Information systems kept in-line with the USN. Three additional Air Warfare Destroyers was considered, but the decision was made that other capabilities were more necessary and ASC wasn't given the opportunity to screw up three more ships. A shame as they could have had six AWD, Hobart, Brisbane and Sydney to be joined by Perth, Melbourne and Darwin.
The AWDs will receive upgrades to give them an anti-ballistic missile capability, in line with the USNs Burke class destroyers.
Harpoon will be replaced early in the 2020s with a new anti-ship missile system
Upgrading of Fleet Base East and West to accommodate the new vessels (reading between the lines it suggests subs based in Sydney once more, probably on a rotation for training with the surface fleet)
The Hydrographic force will be replaced with a mix of Navy-manned vessels and commercially-manned vessels
The current Laser Airborne Depth Sounder system will be replaced by a new system, possibly satellite based.


My opinion

The big take away from all of this is that the Government sees the next two decades as being very dangerous, with an emphasis on the maritime environment (basically China and the South China Sea). They have committed to 2% of GDP for defence by 2020, no Government does that except in the face of a real threat.

To that end they are upgrading the expeditionary forces (Navy and Air Force) and placing a premium on being completely inter-operable with the United States. Army is getting some nice stuff, mostly stuff that can operate off Canberra and Adelaide, but no one expects Army to go head to head with the Chinese People's Liberation Army, nor storming the Spratley's or Paracel Islands in conjunction with the US Marines. I could imagine the Army being used to intervene in coups in Fiji or terrorist attacks in the region.

Basically by the mid-2020s the Navy will look very different than the one we have now, The FFGs and most of the Anzacs will be gone, the Collins on the way out as will be Choules, Success and Sirius gone and the Armidale's gone.

The Navy will be built around a force of three Hobarts, the Anzac replacement coming into service, Canberra and Adelaide backed up by a new logistic support vessel, our EEZs patrolled by new OPVs who will be operating south into the Antarctic during summer months and the first of the new Soryu-based subs coming into service.

The big surprises were the emphasis on drones for EW and combat by all three services and the huge emphasis on owning the electronic battlefield of the future, the ADF and government obviously see that as a force multiplier to help offset our smaller numbers.

I am struggling a bit to see the benefit of the 300 KM rocket artillery when a self-propelled gun system would have been a much better option, particularly for sustained fire support. The 155 mm artillery shell with rocket assist can reach out to almost 100 km and do so over and over.

One particular lesson is that the price we pay for building big ticket items in Australia is that items will be late, massively over-priced and of often dubious capability. The AWD and the Tiger are both cases in point.

The AWD program will deliver three frigates (not Destroyer capability) years late and at a cost of over 3 billion dollars a piece. For that money we could have had six Arleigh Burke class destroyers and change and the first two of them would be in service now.

The Tiger attack helicopters are now requiring a mid-life update even though they have not yet achieved interim operational capability, in effect Army isn't willing to deploy them overseas unless its a dire emergency. We paid significantly over scale for the capability to have them built here, only to find they wouldn't work and that they are extremely difficult to marinise for ops off Canberra and Adelaide, let alone the flight deck of Choules which is much closer to the water. At the time the deal was done Bell was offering us Whiskey Cobras, completely marinised and straight off the same production line as the US Marines birds, now we're a decade down the track and we still don't have a deployable capability for the billion plus spent, and the birds we do have are basically flying trainers to allow Army to try and develop skills so that when we get new attack birds they know what to do with them. A massive failure that one.

Much the same could be said for the MRH-90, they don't do the job they were supposed to, the project was five years late and instead of building a mature aircraft as promised ny Eurocopter, the project's been so badly mishandled in Europe that Australia has basically been dragged into their problems, the MRH-90 still does not deliver the capability promised and we paid far too much for the capability and to build it here.
We would have been better off buying the latest SH-60S Sierra model Sea Hawks which are the troop and cargo versions of the Sea Hawk, already marinised and sharing commonality with the Navy's SHH-60R Sea Hawk Romeos. For heavy lift we could have bought more CH-47F Chinooks, a proven in-service capability that we never have enough of.

Given the above, it's likely that the Submarine, Frigate and OPV builds will all run late and over budget, given the only shipyard to turn out a major naval project on time and budget (Tenix and the Anzacs) is now being sold off for housing developments.

Time will tell I suppose, but we have exciting times to come.

Mike

[RussF172]

Yes, some exciting times ahead for the ADF. Thanks for a great report on the White Paper Mike.

[scott154]

Yes I'll second that! Great post Mike and thanks for taking the time to share with us. Scott