RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by CarlLinkenbagh »

RussF172 wrote:This waiting is killing me. Just make a decision already and put us out of our misery. I'm sure there are many who want to know :)


You and me both Russ. The only other thing I'm holding my breath for at the moment is "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom" hitting cinemas on the 21 June.

I ran into my boss from my SEA 5000 days a week or so ago. He took the phrase "loose lips sink ships" to a whole new level, despite my best attempts at smiling, fluttering my eyelashes at him and begging him to tell me when the big announcement will be made.

They can't leave it too much longer. People will start exploding!!
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

I believe the next meeting of the National Security sub-Committee is next Friday, (22 June) so that is the next most likely date for an announcement.

Mike
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

My understanding is that a decision should be announced tomorrow, 22 June.

My money's on Navantia given the RAN is happy with the two Navantia classes in service (Adelaide and Hobart classes) and have another class under construction (the replenishment ships) however BAE has spent a lot of time and effort pumping up their bid.

If I think anyone's a dark horse I think it's Fincantieri with the FREMM.

We should know this time tomorrow.

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Last edited by MikeJames on 21 Jun 2018 15:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

Thanks Mike, this has been a very informative thread.

To me no matter who wins, no doubt the biggest loser will be the taxpayer..

J
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by RussF172 »

Well, I've got to admit that I hope to make some money out of it too :)
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

Hope you do too Russ. And hoping we have an interesting ship members can build.

Cheers John
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

Announcement apparently delayed so the Government can focus on hammering the opposition following the tax cuts passing through the Senate yesterday.

The Future Frigate announcement is to be rescheduled for mid-next week.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

While we wait from a modeling perspective we Have Fremm and Awd hulls already available at Mtb. Id imagine the T26 hull would or could be developed in time by Tim.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

I heard on Abc tonight decision delayed possibly to July with Austral considerations for involvement being discussed. Why that is necessary begars belief?

My gut feeling is T26. Based on politics based on the fact i think there is a view rightly or wrongly that there will be greater emphasis on ASW than was originally considered in the project spec.

But wish they'd just get on with it.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

Austal has no connection with any of the AWD bids, it's not like the OPV where work can be transferred from ASC to Western Australia, all construction will take place at Osborne in South Australia.

Austal was supposed to get construction of the later OPVs, but they couldn't come to agreement with Lursson over a large number of contractual arrangements, a number of which had to deal with the fact that all work had to be done in steel.

Austal has been an aluminium builder for every ship they've built, with the exception of the Pacific Patrol Boat contract they are currently working on, they didn't want to build in steel but after the Navy's experiences with the Armidale's they were told build in steel or no contract.

Basically the RAN decided that the small Pacific nations that would be receiving the Pacific Patrol Boats need something that can survive some rough handling and minimal maintenance over prolonged periods. The previous Pacific Patrol Boats were able to but it was felt Austal's aluminium designs weren't up to it.

So Austal couldn' come to the table and the OPV build in WA went to Civmec, the company that bourght Forgacs Defence business. Now they are crying about it but not getting much sympathy from the Government, which has biger fish to fry. At best Austal might get some alminum fabrication work and building components for the internal fitout.

I'm still hearing that a decision could come as early as mid-week.

On a secondary note I smile when I see journalists uncritically rehashing BAE's talking points that the selection of the Type 26 will happen because we're both members of the Five Eyes intel group, or that it means we'll get a Free Trade Agreement with the UK after Brexit, or the latest one, that if we buy Type 26 the UK will buy Bushmaster, thats a new one, one with no basis in truth whatsoever.

Which ship we buy is completely irrelevant to the Five Eyes agreement, the UK is eager to do post-Brexit FTAS with us, NZ, India and the US and Canada, so that will happen irrespective and the UK looked at Bushmaster and said nice concept, but we have our own vehicles, thanks.

The ship we choose will be because it's combination of capablilities, systems, IP transfer, price and system maturity best match the Navy's needs.

The rest is PR spin.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by rritchie71 »

It wasn't to do with steel, Austal have that capability, it was how the work was going to be divided and who was going to play what role between Civmec and Austal that was the problem and really it was the government who cocked it up again.

The hen house was only built for two roosters, you cannot throw in a third, keep the same budget and the same amount of hens and then divide it three ways and expect everything is going to be dandy.

The government and DoD wanted Austal as part of it, because Austal have actually built ships (they are the most experienced and only commercially viable yard in the country). Civmec have never built a ship before, any ship, so they are looking for experienced staff now, probably from BAE as the Anzac work over there dries up and maybe poaching Austals steel shipbuilding staff if they can.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

Not completely correct Rob, Civmec own Forgacs who have built Minehunters and competed for the Armidale contract with a variant of the Dicotti class of Italian Coast Guard patrol boats, but I take your point.

Austal won the Armidale contract and that killed Forgacs as a warship builder. Civmec won the OPV contract and that will probably kill Austal as a warship builder. We really only have enough warship work for 1.5 shipyards at best, that's why Forgacs is gone, why Tenix Williamstown is gone and it's why Austal will be gone as a warship builder. Fortunately they have civilian work to keep them busy.

In a few years we will have ASC building the frigates, Civmec finishing the OPVs and desperate for work, and probably not getting much, if any.

Then we'll be down to one shipbuilder building warships.

That's called forced rationalisation.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by rritchie71 »

SlatsSSN wrote:I heard on Abc tonight decision delayed possibly to July with Austral considerations for involvement being discussed. Why that is necessary begars belief?

My gut feeling is T26. Based on politics based on the fact i think there is a view rightly or wrongly that there will be greater emphasis on ASW than was originally considered in the project spec.

But wish they'd just get on with it.


The ASW emphasis may be in the engineering side, on the top, radars and weapons can be changed out (just look at the FFG7’s and Anzac changes over time) but the drive train a ship is built with, is what it will have for it’s entire life.
Quietness is life and death in ASW and electric is quieter than gas turbine, so if the Navantia option is a GT only drivetrain (correct me if I am wrong here) and the T26 and Fremm are hybrid GT/Electric drivetrains, then you would think the more emphasis placed on ASW, the more the choice will be between these two.
Because a certainty, just like death and taxes, is change….. that other navies will change submarines in the life of these ships and those subs will get quieter and quieter.

If they are trying to involve Austal here, I would think it will be about jobs, giving them some of the work will create more stability for a sustainable shipbuilding industry, which has been the government catch-cry for a while. Their will be a federal election in the next twelve months and WA could make or break the government, the same reason ASC was created in SA to begin with.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by rritchie71 »

Mike, Civmec bought the Forgacs assets, not the skilled workforce, they had almost all gone by then. So on that front they are pretty much starting again, they haven't even finished the yard in WA yet.

I agree about the not enough work for all the yards to keep going indefinitely, which ever government is in, they just wont want it to happen on their watch..... :)

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

The AWD are CODAG (COmbined Diesel And Gas turbine)

The F-5000 is apparently CODAG as one of the options in their bid, though they have another option on the table, a CODLAG plant (COmbined Diesel, Electric and Gas). This is the same powerplant type as the RN's Type 23 ASW frigates.

As for the comment about the next election and WA concerns, the Government will be able to point at WA shipbuilders working on the Pacific Patrol Boat and the OPV project, so that defangs that issue for the next election.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

What I mean about the ASW emphasis is that I think there has been a change as to how important that now is within the SEA 5000 project given:
- the league time on our new subs, that procurement mess, and I for one think that the chosen DCN design won't ever happen;
-the sabre rattling of China and militarization of the South China Sea; and
-what Rob posted about the proliferation over the life cycle for even quieter subs that we will be required to keep tabs on.

Ultimately I think we might wake up in a yr or so and realize that we'd better lease some SSNs at substantially lower life-cycle costs and lease the US nuclear industry support to maintain them. An off the shelf French made variant of what we ordered is $2.2bn per unit in France - our variant SSKs are $4.6bn each. A bought Virgina class is $3.6bn. An off the shelf Japanese SSK is about $900mil. It's nuts to think that we can have a blue water navy with huge patrol sectors covered off by SSK technology. We can't keep Collins at sea in any strategic numbers. I can't see the next Govt seriously carrying the weight of the 12 DCNs Short Fin Baraccudas into forward estimates of the never never. Leasing SSNs is an option - it's massively cheaper too. In short more ASW emphasis will be placed squarely upon on the skimmer fleet no matter what happens.

The T26 electric drive will still use GT and it builds upon the T23 electric drive system. The T23 experience shows having an electric motor spin the wheels, regardless of the power generation of that motor is substantially quieter than coupling the shaft to a fuel burning engine. Add to that the T26 hull design optimised for ASW - and if the emphasis has shifted more towards ASW - the T26 becomes a short price favourite - save for the risk fact it's on paper. On paper, however, that risk may be it's the greatest advantage, less obsolescence as time goes forward.

re the political decision - these procurements are always political. As Mike says the "Five eyes" talk is fanciful - but we need to understand why the media is being force feed that tripe. Don't underestimate the back channel conservative UK / Aust government ties, particularly post Brexit, where the day by day punters on the ground who voted for it are seeing little benefit. The UK govt is desperate to sell any win they can to a weary UK electorate.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

There is, unfortunately no appetite whatsoever within the current government for nuclear propulsion in any form and the opposition is implacably opposed to it, and given they will likely need Green votes in the Senate, we all know what the Greens think of nuclear power.

So leasing / buying any sort of nuclear powered submarine will not happen. Not now, not under the next government, whoever that is, and likely not in any of our lifetimes.

As for the Type 26 being the 'short price' favorite, it is also, by a significant margin, the most expensive of the three designs.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

There's a big difference Mike in buying an SSN politically and "leasing"it - with US based industry to maintain - refuel / defuel it etc / USN training too. Plenty of literature on it as a viable option, with US Govt in principle support across Obama / Trumpo admins. Politically a leased SSN poses the same "nuclear risk" as a visiting SSN to any Australian port that will have it. Sure its a difficult sales pitch - but leasing doesn't require all the nuclear industry shore side to maintain it, if as per some literature has argued it can be done in the US.

I think the DCN design is so woefully underdone, and breathtakingly expensive, we will be reviewing the whole sub situation soon. The DCN SSK won't have anywhere near the required Australian industry involvement, already seeing media on that now. The Aussie involvement is being scaled down to resemble a Kia assembly line, with the big $ build bits developed in France, in French yards, with their workforce and industry. Nine T26's will look cheap in the end.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

The US has not ever offered to lease a nuclear powered asset to anyone, not to the UK and not to us. In fact the only people who have leased a nuke sub are the Russians and they have only done it with the Indian Navy.

I can tell you the ADF has not even looked into the option, given the US has never indicated that option is on the table.

Even if Trump and Turnbull signed a contract tomorrow, we'd be looking at a decade plus to complete the following.

Build the port and maintenance facilities to support the vessels here in Australia.
Develop the engineering training programs and get them certified as suitable, then start training sailors.
Train the significantly larger numbers of submariners required
Train a new generation of reactor trained technicians and engineering officers to the standard the US demands for its own nuke engineers.
Train and implement the security protocols necessary to convince the US that their nuke secrets were safe with us.
Train a new breed of sub commanders to operate capabilities totally unlike what has been previously operated, both good (speed, endurance) and bad (noise and size)

I know there are a coterie of ill-informed wankers on various forums and on the comments sections of the Herald, the Age and the Australian saying we should buy / lease Virginia class subs. They are the same idiots who says we should ditch the F35 and buy F22, even though that aircraft is no longer in production and when it was it was absolutely not for sale to anyone not the USAF by act of Congress.

Like I said, unlikely we will ever see a nuclear powered sub flying the White Ensign in our lifetimes.

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

Amnd the winner is BAE with the TYPE 26.

FMD, I have a bad feeling about this one.

For an 8800 tonne ship you don't get a lot of firepower for your money.

Ah well at least it wasn't FREMM
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by BsHvyCgn9 »

Typical of this govt. pick the most expensive untried option....

B2 :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke:
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by phillip08 »

A very strange outcome, the press release indicates BAE will takeover ASC for the project period (Hence the monkey is passed to BAE to to bring the project in on time and budget - not ASC). The other thing brought up is the frigates will be fitted with "CEA Phased Array Radar and crucually for interoperabiltiy with the US Navy, Lockheed martins Aegis combat system. SAAB Australia will provide a home grown interface, giving the frigates a unquely powerful capbility".

There was also some comments about Defence not wanting Austral in the project group.

The comments on CEA - Phar are more interesting as it cheaper then Aegis, if they can get the inferface working (?) it would mean the possibility of sales to the US. This allows the US an opportunity to look at a more cost effective replacement for their FFG's.

There will be a of press etc around today.

The big question does anyone know who makes a type 26 hull?

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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

There was no doubt. :clap:
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

No one currently makes a Type 26 hull.

Perhaps if DMG gets a job to build them as models, and Southern Cross get the order for the hulls from DMG, we might eventually see the hull,

The alternative is at least three people get together and commission a hull from Christian in Gibraltar, as he needs a miinimum of thee orders before he will do a hull.

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Post by glenhowells »

Well I also think poor choice. Thought Navantia would have had it in the bag with all the other Spanish origin units we will operate with commonality not extending to the type 26. Thank Christ we did not go down the same path with the Hobart class type 45 what a joke. Hope the type 26 don't have the same on going problems the 45's are suffering. The type 22 batch 3 was the last very good and capable warship the poms built.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

Names.

The new class is going to be the Hunter class, suggesting that they will pick up the River class names.

Huon, Diamantina, Gascoyne, Hawkesbury, Norman and Yarra are in use with the mine hunters but they will be gone before most of the Hunter class are in service, freeing up those names. Parramatta and Stuart are Anzac's, and they are being replaced by the Hunters so that free's up those names.

Swan, Derwent and Torrens are already available.

Hunter's not been used before, so that leaves eight names from a possible 11.

I would expect Derwent,Parramatta, Torrens, Swan and Yarra to be used as they are the rivers state capital's sit on.

That leaves three names from the remaining; Huon, Gascoyne, Diamantina, Hawkesbury, Norman and Stuart. Place your bets.

I also note that no names have been mentioned the for the OPVs, possibly they will pick up the Bathurst / Fremantle / Armidale class names.

Mike
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by SlatsSSN »

entertaining thread- MJ - love your commentary. :taz: Brilliant stuff. Mike - this may be in the basket of the media you referred to re leasing options - https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/austral ... us-option/
there are many more. Notwithstanding the very real politics that Mike points out about it being a bridge too far to operate a nuke boat, the only other alternative if we wake up and walk away from DCN is to state that local manufacturing here should concentrate on skimmers and the trade-off for the taxpayer is we buy an off the shelf proven SSK - like what the Japanese had offered at 900mil a pop.

You could buy 12 improved Soryu-class SSKs for the cost of 2.3 DCNs. In fact, the Soryu's could have been partially assembled here to a greater extent than the Kia final assembly that is no mooted for the DCNs. Given these eye-watering costs for the DCNs $4.6bn a boat (roughly the equivalent of a Seawolf SSN in today's money), and the T26 is dirt cheap. I can see parallels to the DCN and the Seaspirte F/up.
Yet DCN is far wore than the Seasprite in the fact the magnitude of cost and defence capability loss whilst we sort it out will be enormous.

Always had a gut feeling on T26. I'll be back in Uk in three weeks time, will be interested to see how or if the local press are still reporting it and if TM is still milking mileage from it. At the moment there are groans from some UK press, pointing out the majority of the funds are not to be spent in the UK.

I'm happier about T26 (regardless of the expense) as I think the shifting role for SEA 5000 could see these ships being forced into more of an ASW platform than first intended as our sub force is craptacular and the DCN project could well be a new world record for taxpayer waste.

Re hulls - yep can see it happening somewhere down the track, but I'd imagine like the AWDs there will be a long league time before plans are allowed to be released.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

WRT the hulls, everything BAE have so far released are based on their proposal, not on what the final agreed design is for the Hunter class so even if we had a Type 26 hull we don't have final design.

For example BAE is proposing we go with SeaCeptor (that they have a hand in) instead of Standard and VL Sea Sparrow, can't see that happening when that's been standardised on with the Hobart, Anzac and FFG classes.

Introducing SeaCeptor would mean the RAN would have to do all the integration work (with Aegis, the SPY radar system and the CEAFAR radar systems) and the complete weapons handling and operational certification process at our expense.

Mike
Last edited by MikeJames on 03 Jul 2018 15:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MichaelB »

MikeJames wrote:Names.

The new class is going to be the Hunter class, suggesting that they will pick up the River class names.

Huon, Diamantina, Gascoyne, Hawkesbury, Norman and Yarra are in use with the mine hunters but they will be gone before most of the Hunter class are in service, freeing up those names. Parramatta and Stuart are Anzac's, and they are being replaced by the Hunters so that free's up those names.

Swan, Derwent and Torrens are already available.

Hunter's not been used before, so that leaves eight names from a possible 11.

I would expect Derwent,Parramatta, Torrens, Swan and Yarra to be used as they are the rivers state capital's sit on.

That leaves three names from the remaining; Huon, Gascoyne, Diamantina, Hawkesbury, Norman and Stuart. Place your bets.

I also note that no names have been mentioned the for the OPVs, possibly they will pick up the Bathurst / Fremantle / Armidale class names.

Mike


Alternatively, there could be the Barossa, Coonawarra, Margaret River, Derwent, Freycinet etc., all great wine growing areas like the Hunter. :D
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Re: RAN OPV and Frigate shortlist news

Post by MikeJames »

Sorry Michael, but they will be named in accordance with political interests in mind, not your palette.
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